An extensive evaluation of seven machine learning methods for rainfall prediction in weather derivatives

S Cramer, M Kampouridis, AA Freitas… - Expert Systems with …, 2017 - Elsevier
Regression problems provide some of the most challenging research opportunities in the
area of machine learning, and more broadly intelligent systems, where the predictions of …

Valuation of energy storage: An optimal switching approach

R Carmona, M Ludkovski - Quantitative finance, 2010 - Taylor & Francis
We consider the valuation of energy storage facilities within the framework of stochastic
control. Our two main examples are natural gas dome storage and hydroelectric pumped …

Development of an irradiance-based weather derivative to hedge cloud risk for solar energy systems

CFH Boyle, J Haas, JD Kern - Renewable Energy, 2021 - Elsevier
For large energy consumers transitioning to high shares of solar energy, irradiance
variability causes volatility in power generation and energy expenditures. Volatility in an end …

Mitigating hydrologic financial risk in hydropower generation using index-based financial instruments

BT Foster, JD Kern, GW Characklis - Water Resources and Economics, 2015 - Elsevier
Variability in streamflows can lead to reduced generation from hydropower producers and
result in reductions in revenues that can be financially disruptive. This link between …

Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model

M Ritter, O Musshoff, M Odening - Computational Economics, 2014 - Springer
It is well known that the hedging effectiveness of weather derivatives is interfered by the
existence of geographical basis risk, ie, the deviation of weather conditions at different …

Pricing rainfall futures at the CME

BL Cabrera, M Odening, M Ritter - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2013 - Elsevier
Many business people such as farmers and financial investors are affected by indirect
losses caused by scarce or abundant rainfall. Because of the high potential of insuring …

[HTML][HTML] A poisson-gamma model for zero inflated rainfall data

NC Dzupire, P Ngare, L Odongo - Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2018 - hindawi.com
Rainfall modeling is significant for prediction and forecasting purposes in agriculture,
weather derivatives, hydrology, and risk and disaster preparedness. Normally two models …

Temperature stochastic modeling and weather derivatives pricing: empirical study with Moroccan data

M Mraoua - Afrika Statistika, 2007 - ajol.info
The main objective of this paper is to present a technique for pricing weather derivatives with
payout depending on temperature. We start by using the Principle Component Analysis …

Precipitation or water capacity indices? An analysis of the benefits of alternative underlyings for index insurance

U Kellner, O Musshoff - Agricultural Systems, 2011 - Elsevier
Eastern Germany is often hit by drought causing income risk for crop farmers. Index-based
risk management instruments could help crop farmers to reduce their farm income risk. Such …

Decomposition genetic programming: An extensive evaluation on rainfall prediction in the context of weather derivatives

S Cramer, M Kampouridis, AA Freitas - Applied Soft Computing, 2018 - Elsevier
Regression problems provide some of the most challenging research opportunities in the
area of machine learning, where the predictions of some target variables are critical to a …